https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cya.2017.02.003
Paper Research
Evolution of state clusters related with technological
capability in Mexico: Application of a multivariate statistical analysis of
cluster
Evolución de la
capacidad tecnológica en México. Aplicación del análisis estadístico multivariante de clúster
1Carla Carolina Pérez Hernández
1Graciela Lara Gómez
1Denise Gómez Hernández
1Universidad
Autónoma de Querétaro, México
Corresponding author: Carla Carolina Pérez Hernández, email:
carolina.cph@gmail.com
Abstract
The
objective of this work is to analyze how the technological capability is
distributed between the Mexican states and to examine their evolution. To this
end, an empirical study was developed using the cluster multivariate
statistical analysis technique, based on the set of indicators proposed by Cepal (2007), and gathering the data from various public
sources in the country during years 2006 and 2012. This was done to study the
evolution of said conglomerates, trying to see which states have been able to
move to a conglomerate located in more advanced positions and which have
retreated within said period. The results show the existence of 7 groups of
states characterized by different levels of technological capability.
Furthermore, 3 entities that evolved into a more advanced conglomerate –
regarding absorption and innovation capability, as well as infrastructure
technological capability – are also detected.
Keywords: Technological capabilities, State conglomerates,
Multivariate statistical analysis.
JEL classification: O10, O30, O33.
Resumen
El objetivo del presente trabajo es analizar
cómo se distribuye la capacidad tecnológica entre las entidades federativas de
México y examinar su evolución. Para ello, se desarrolló un estudio empírico
utilizando la técnica de análisis estadístico multivariante
de clúster, con base en el set de indicadores propuesto por Cepal
(2007) y recopilando los datos de diversas fuentes públicas del país para los
años 2006 y 2012, con el fin de estudiar la evolución en el tiempo de dichos
clústeres, tratando de ver qué estados han podido mudarse a un clúster situado
en posiciones más avanzadas y cuáles han retrocedido en dicho periodo. Los
resultados muestran la existencia de 7 grupos de estados caracterizados por
distintos niveles de capacidad tecnológica, y se detectan también 3 entidades
que evolucionaron a un clúster más avanzado, tanto en lo referente a la
capacidad de absorción e innovación como en lo relativo a las capacidades
tecnológicas de infraestructura.
Palabras clave: Capacidades tecnológicas, Conglomerados
estatales, Análisis estadístico multivariante.
Códigos JEL: O10, O30, O33.
Received: 16/02/2015
Accepted: 03/11/2015
Introduction
Science, technology, and
innovation are the main drivers of sustainable economic development ( Brunner, 2011; Diaconu,
2011; Dosi, 2008; Schumpeter, 2005; Stern, Porter,
& Furman, 2000; Ulku, 2004 ). This justifies the
realization of both national and international studies focused on measuring the
technological capabilities at macro level. The studies at a state level are not
as numerous. In Mexico, the Scientific and Technological Advisory Forum (FCCyT) has the task of presenting the state of Science,
Technology, and Innovation (CTI) at a state and national level. However, as
noted by the FCCyT (2014, p. 16) , the studies developed
with regard to the CTI at a state level “ are
incipient and require a broader, complementary, or particular analysis ”.
Furthermore,
the concept of the National Innovation System is prone to analyzing the
technological capabilities of different entities, as this helps to better
understand the socioeconomic transformations of the same ( Dutrénit, Capdeville,
Corona, Puchet, & Veracruz, 2010 ). It is indicated that
competitiveness (international, national, state-wise, industrial, and
corporate-wise) is built; it is an acquired advantage and, essentially, depends
on the broadness and depth of the national technological capabilities ( Borrastero, 2012; Calderón & Hartmann, 2010; Close & Garita, 2011; Guzmán, 2008;
Morales, 2009 ). In this sense, “ the technological
capabilities that drive innovation have always been a fundamental component of
competitiveness and the economic growth and well-being of the countries ”
( Velarde, Garza, & Coronado,
2011, p. 17 ). Likewise, Dominguez and Brown
(2004) consider pertinent to return to the initial approach regarding the
importance of analyzing the level of technological capabilities, in order to
better understand its differences in the situation of heterogeneity, which
characterizes developing economies.
The
objective of this work is to analyze how the technological capability is
distributed between the Mexican states and examine its evolution. To this end,
it was considered necessary to supplement and delve further into the previous
proposal made by Blázquez de le Hera and García-Ochoa Mayor (2009) , considering necessary to
carry out an empirical study that not only explores the existence of different
conglomerates of technological capability, but that also evaluates the
evolution through time of said capabilities between the groups of states. This
was done to detect those states that have managed to migrate into a better
positioned conglomerate and those that have regressed in said issue, and thus
create a more in-depth discussion and reflection regarding said results. The
investigation was carried out using data from the years 2006 and 2012 –
published in various sources (see Table
2
) – which contain a series of indicators that attempt to quantify different
aspects related to the technological capability.
Two
periods (2006 and 2012) are analyzed with the empirical work through three
stages. The first consists on reducing a great number of indicators through
factorial analysis, obtaining two factors. Subsequently, these factors are
analyzed to identify different groups of states using the cluster technique.
Finally, an econometric test is carried out to evaluate the statistical
accuracy of the conglomerates obtained. Thus, proving the existence of 7 groups
of states characterized by different levels of technological capability, as
well as detecting 3 entities that evolved into a more advanced conglomerate to
both: absorption and innovation capability, as well as infrastructure
technological capability.
Brief review of concepts
Bell, Pavitt and Lall (cited by Cepal, 2007 , p. 11) indicate that the
development of technological capabilities “ implies
knowledge and abilities to acquire, use, absorb, adapt, improve, and create new
technologies ” (see Fig. 1 ). Departing from this
definition, it is understood that technological capabilities include absorption
and innovation capabilities. The former is subject to aspects such as
infrastructures, innovation activities, the formation of human capital, and the
abilities of the countries to create, imitate, and manage knowledge, whereas
the latter refers to the possibility to access, learn, and assimilate foreign
technologies ( Quiñones & Tezanos, 2011).
For García, Blázquez,
and Ruiz (2012) , there are three types of capabilities: technological
capability, absorption capability, and innovation capability ( Fig. 2 ), which have usually been treated
separately. However, the existence of elements shared between all of them has
been evidenced, as well as an intense correlation that makes it possible for
said capabilities to be studied in conjunction. Furthermore, given that the
technological capabilities include the capabilities of absorption and
innovation, the existing connection between said capabilities makes it
pertinent to focus toward the technological capabilities as a central element.
Fig. 1: Concept of the development of technological capabilities.
Source: Own elaboration based
on Cepal (2007), Quiñones and Tezanos (2011), and Ortega (2005).
Fig.
2: Types of capabilities.
Source: Own elaboration based on Biggs, Shah, and Srivastava (1995) and García et al. (2012).
Cepal (2007) considers
possible to identify the accumulation of technological capabilities at the
microeconomic level (in the signatures), but also at the national
(macroeconomic) and sectorial (mesoeconomic) level.
Furthermore, it establishes that the analysis of the technological capabilities
allows the consideration of three dimensions: (1) the available base (human
resources, infrastructure, ‘quality’ of the environment); (2) the efforts made
for the increase and consolidation of the capabilities (the acquisition of
knowledge in its different forms, R&D, among others); (3) the results
achieved derived from the existing capabilities (patents, rate of innovation,
and technological content of the exports).
On the
other hand, by speaking of the technological capabilities of a nation or
region, it is necessary to identify them as inherent to the National Innovation
System, given that this, according to Dutréit and Sutz
(2014) , centers on the actors, the institutions, and their relations, which
contribute to a better understanding of both the intrinsic dynamic of
innovation as well as its connections with the development processes.
Consequently, according to Buesa, Martínez,
Heijs, and Baumert (2002) , the Regional
Innovation System concept alludes to a group of institutional and corporate
organizations that, within a determined geographical scope, interact with each
other to allocate resources for the realization of activities directed to the
generation and dissemination of knowledge which support the innovations (mainly
technological) that are the bases for economic development.
In this
sense, Rózga (2003) notes that the future
depends on how the Regional Innovation Systems respond to the territorial
challenges of creating the synergies that shall correspond to the needs of
generating technological knowledge, which shall help produce territorial
innovation networks. One way to recognize said networks is by studying the
territorial reality and identifying their technological capability by regions
or groups.
National empirical studies
In Mexico, there are
studies at a national level that are highly reduced, above all, stratified to a
state by state level, due in great measure to the fact that the availability of
the data by state is limited. To date, there are 5 studies (see Table 1 ) that delineate the relative
geography to the technological and/or innovation capability from various
methodologies.
It is worth noting that
this work follows the methodology proposed by Pérez
and Lara (2015) , however, under this research not only are the
conglomerates of technology capability identified, but their evolution through
time is also evaluated and solid arguments are assigned that deepen the
reflection regarding technological capabilities throughout the national
territory; highlighting the importance of promoting the latter without creating
greater regional unbalances.
Source: Own elaboration based
on FCCyT (2014).
It can
be deduced that the different methodologies for the measurement of the
technological and innovation activity that is carried out in the country,
whether they are different-complementary methodologies and of little
comparison, point in the same direction: there are clear unbalances in the
subject matter. Furthermore, it is considered that the persisting breaches,
specifically those of technological capability, are better illustrated by
carrying out a cluster analysis as shown in this investigation, thus proving
the advancement of some of the entities with the passage of time.
Review of the indicators utilized
Chinaprayoon (2007) notes that one of the
peculiarities of technology is its variety and, therefore, the technological
capabilities that are comprised of heterogeneous elements, including research
activities, infrastructure, stock of knowledge, human resources, among others.
Because of this, it is impossible to use a single indicator to explain the
technological capabilities of a nation or state.
In this
article, a series of indicators was used that directly and indirectly measure
different relevant aspects of the technological capability for the 32 Mexican
states. Given that the advantage of using a set of indicators is well known, it
is thus possible to define the situation of each country with greater accuracy
(in this case the state-wise situation), providing an easier understanding of
the differences between them.
For
this study focused on the national-sectorial technological capability, we
consider pertinent to adopt the taxonomy of the Cepal (2007) , given that this agglomerates
dimensions and indicators, while taking into account the innovation system for
Developing Countries. Other taxonomies1 focus their studies on
developed countries, where the behavior and technological indicators differ.
Furthermore, said indicators are found disaggregated at the state level and thus
we are able to recognize the dynamics of the technological capability at the mesoeconomic level.
In this
sense, some variables were adapted in relation to the dimension of ‘the efforts
carried out’ and ‘the results achieved’ given that as Archibugi and Coco (2005) note, in many cases the
variables are dictated by the availability of the statistical sources, more so
than by the theoretical preferences. For this study, the years 2006 and 2012
were chosen as there is public information available.
It is important to note
that the data utilized for this work were derived from two sources: published
data regarding the years 2006 and 2012 (hard data) and data from the Survey on
Technological Research and Development and the Module on Activities of
Biotechnology and Nanotechnology (survey data).2
To make
the data comparable, these were normalized in accordance with the formula to
compare individual indicators proposed by Archibugi and Coco (2004) , which is expressed as
follows: (observed value − minimum
value)/(maximum value − minimum value);
range of the indices: [0 and 1].
Methodology and result analysis
The methodology of this work
consists on developing a cluster multivariate statistical analysis for the
years 2006 and 2012 that, as its first point, shows the results regarding the
descriptive statistics of the previously normalized variables. Subsequently,
the factorial analysis is carried out to highlight the main components relative
to the study of technological capability. Third, an analysis of hierarchical
conglomerates is done, better known as a cluster analysis, to identify the
groups of states that share similar characteristics. Finally, an econometric
test is performed for the validation of the cluster analysis. The methods
mentioned shall be described in detail in the following sections.
Source : Own elaboration based
on the taxonomy of Cepal (2007).
Review
of the descriptive statistics
In this section, the
previously normalized descriptive statistics are presented for the analyzed years,
in which it is considered that, by taking the smaller datum and applying to it
the normalization formula, a result of zero is obtained. Likewise, the greater
datum shall be one. Therefore, these data define the range [0,1] and all the
other data shall be contained in said interval. It could be understood that the
datum becomes a percentage, in which 0% is the minimum value and 100% is the
maximum value, and the variables in question represent some percentage between
0 and 100.
The descriptive
statistics that result to be useful in the analysis are the median and the
standard deviation (as is shown in Table
3
). For most of the variables, the median has a small growth and the standard
deviation is maintained equal or almost equal, which implies that most of the
states grew approximately by the same quantity.
However, variables such
as foreign direct investment or the GDP per capita show a significant growth in
the median. Nevertheless, the standard deviation remains very similar. This
would indicate that most of the states significantly increased their value in
these variables, but maintained the same dispersal in their differences with
regard to the rest of the states. It could be interpreted that there was a
certain factor that affected all the states, causing the generalized increased
in the values.
On the
other hand, variables such as patents granted, the number of researchers, and
the GDP increased their medians in great measure, and suffered significant
changes in their standard deviations, as well. This means that the states grew,
but some more than others. It could be interpreted that there was no single
factor that caused the changes in all the states for these variables, but
rather that each state changed due to its own causes. Finally, it ought to be
emphasized that the telephone lines
variable suffered a decrease in its median; said variable, according to Chinaprayoon (2007), is considered a
diffuser of old technologies , in
contrast with the internet and the mobile phone lines that represent the
diffusion of new technologies.
Factor
analysis
The purpose of the factor
analysis is to identify the explicative variables that best examine the
distribution of the technological capability between states. Therefore, the
objective of the factor analysis is to extract a lesser number of factors that
explain most of the sample variance; this is a broadly utilized and accepted
technique in this type of studies ( Archibugi, 1988 ). However, prior to
the factor analysis, a study was carried out on the viability of performing it
for the set of data, (year 2006 and 2012), for which the Kaiser–Meyer–Olkin tests (KMO) and the Bartlett sphericity
tests ( Table 4) were utilized.
The KMO index is used to
compare the magnitudes of the multiple correlation coefficients observed with
the magnitudes of partial correlation coefficients ( Álvarez, 1995 ). When the index value
is low, less than 0.5, the application of the analysis is not advised, given
that the correlations between pairs of variables cannot be explained through
the other variables. The closer the KMO index is to 1, the more adequate the
use of the factor analysis results. It is observed that for the year 2006, the
KMO index is = .763 > .5,
therefore, it makes sense to carry out a factor analysis. The same happens for
the year 2012, given that the KMO index = .717 > 0.5.
On the
other hand, the Bartlett sphericity test verifies if
there are interrelations between the variables through the enunciation of the
null hypothesis, which indicates that the correlation matrix is the identity
matrix (the one that has ones in the main diagonal and zeros in the rest of the
values). If the null hypothesis is confirmed, it would be assumed that the
variables are not correlated. On the contrary, if the null hypothesis is
rejected, the variables would be related and it would be adequate to carry out
the factor analysis ( Pedroza, 2006).
For
both periods, 2006 and 2012, the p
value associated with the Bartlett sphericity test is
less than .05, thus the H 0 is rejected and,
therefore, it makes sense to carry out a factor analysis. Table 5 brings together the results of the
factors for the years 2006 and 2012, respectively. Jointly, these two factors
explain a high percentage of the sample variance (between 74.26% and 78.65%,
respectively), which is significant at conventional levels and thus indicates
that these factors represent most of the variability in the data.
FACTOR 1: This is a combination of 11
variables that entails 58.5% of the sample variance in the year 2006 and 54.7%
in the year 2012, thus implying to be a rather relevant dimension to analyze
the differences in the technological capability between states. Factor 1,
according to the literature, could be interpreted as the capability of
absorption and innovation. FACTOR 2: This
is a combination of 5 variables that entails 19.5% of the sample variance in
the year 2012 and 20.1% in the year 2006. Factor 2, according to the
literature, could be interpreted as infrastructure technological capability.
Table 5 , denominated Rotated
Components Matrix, presents the existing correlation (saturation) between each
of the variables and their corresponding factor. The saturation represents the
weight (the significance) of the variable within the factor. It is worth
mentioning that unlike what occurs with other techniques such as the variance
or regression analyses, in the factor analysis all the variables of the
analysis fulfill the same role: all of them are independent in the sense, in
principle, that there is no conceptual dependency of some variables over
others. Therefore, the variables of both factors ( X and Y) are considered independent.
The
meaning of the obtained factors ought to be clarified. Factor 1 (graphed in the
axis of the Y), denominated the absorption and innovation capability ,
includes variables relative to the rate of enrollment, human resources
dedicated to research, science and technology; said variables entail the
capability of the states to recognize the value of new and external
information, to assimilate and implement it with commercial purposes. Moreover,
within this same factor are the variables of results achieved such as the
patents that were requested and granted, the expenditure on research and
development of the companies per state, and the indicators that show the
capability of the states to introduce new ideas, conceptualize, design, produce
and sell them. Another one of the variables included in factor 1 is the one
regarding Foreign Direct Investment, which exemplifies the acquisition of
external knowledge of the states.
On the
other hand, factor 2, labeled infrastructure
technological capability , considers as indicators the electric energy
consumption, telephone lines and internet users,3 variables considered as
pertaining to infrastructure that provide a general understanding of the
environment in which the productive activities of the Mexican republic develop;
the combination of these three aspects offers signs of the degree of
sophistication of the production, “ as it could be assumed
that a greater value of the indicators in question corresponds to a greater
sophistication, which ought to be translated into a greater aggregated value in
the production ” (Cepal, 2007 , p. 32). Furthermore,
said factor adds the literacy rate as a metric of the general level of the productive
environment. Finally, the GDP per capita indicator is included, as it is known
that the products with greater technological content (or knowledge content) are
characterized by a greater elasticity of the demand. In others, the GDP per
capita is an indicator of the complexity of the technological demand.4
Cluster analysis
Cluster analysis is the
name given to a set of multivariate techniques whose main purpose is to group
together objects based on their characteristics. The resulting conglomerates
ought to show a high degree of internal homogeneity within the conglomerate and
a high degree of external heterogeneity of the same ( Álvarez, 1995 ). In this case, the
partition of a set of data (corresponding to different states) was sought in
the groups, so that the data belonging to a single group are very similar among
each other, but very different from the other groups. In order to manage to
form homogeneous groups of observations (of states in this case), their similarity
or distance (dissimilarity) must be measured. In this regard, numerous methods
have been developed to measure the distance between the cases. In this work,
the Euclidean distance was utilized, which measures the similarity between
analysis units that have been evaluated in a set of metric variables
(quantitative).
The state conglomerates and their evolution in the 2006–2012 period
The analysis of hierarchical conglomerates
(cluster analysis) begins with the calculation of the distance matrix among the
sample elements. This matrix contains the existing distances between each
element and all the remains of the samples. Subsequently, the two closest
elements are found (i.e., the two more similar in terms of distance) and are
grouped in a conglomerate. The resulting conglomerate is indivisible from that
moment onward (thus the hierarchical name assigned to the procedure). In this
manner, the elements are grouped into conglomerates each time larger and more
heterogeneous among themselves, until reaching the final step in which all the
sample elements are grouped into a single, global conglomerate. The
hierarchical conglomerates procedure of the SPSS informs of all the steps
carried out in the analysis, thus it is easy to appreciate what elements or
conglomerates are cast in each step and at what distance they were when they
fused. This allows the evaluation of the heterogeneity of the conglomerates.
This section presents the results of the cluster
multivariate statistical analysis, which divides the Mexican states into 7
groups or conglomerates characterized by different levels of technological
capability in the periods of 2006 and 2012. Table 6 shows the states that are part of each
of the groups in the two periods considered.
Regarding technological capabilities,
Mexico moves at 7 different steps. The state conglomerates of technological
capability obtained are described below:
·
Conglomerate 1: Excellent in absorption and innovation capability
and good in infrastructure technological
capability. In this conglomerate, only Mexico City can be found for both
periods of time, by having a clearly outstanding position with regard to these
two components. However, there has been no visible evolution in either of the
two factors in the periods considered. On the contrary, it seems to have
slightly decreased in the factors analyzed from 2006 to 2012.
·
Conglomerate 2: Regular in absorption and innovation capability
and excellent in infrastructure technological
capability. This group is found at a considerable distance regarding
conglomerate 1, comprised of Mexico City, in terms of absorption and innovation
capability. However, this group has a better position in terms of infrastructure
technological capability. In 2006, this conglomerate was comprised solely by
Nuevo León, however, in 2012 it is comprised by Nuevo León and Querétaro, with
the latter having come from group 6, in 2006, fundamentally due to its
improvement on both factors.
·
Conglomerate 3: Good in absorption and innovation capability with low deficit in infrastructure technological
capability. Jalisco is found in this conglomerate, both in 2006 and 2012. On
the one hand, it is well positioned within the absorption and innovation
capability component, but it has a slightly negative positioning regarding the
infrastructure technological capabilities.
·
Conglomerate 4: Good in absorption and innovation capability with average deficit in infrastructure technological capability.
The State of Mexico can be found in this conglomerate. It can be observed that
they present a positive position in the first component (only below that of
conglomerate 1), though they are found in the negative quadrant for the second
component.
·
Conglomerate 5: Low deficit in absorption and innovation capability
and regular in infrastructure technological
capability. This group was comprised by nine states in 2006 (Aguascalientes,
Baja California Norte, Baja California Sur, Coahuila, Colima, Chihuahua,
Quintana Roo, Sonora, Tamaulipas). In 2012, all those
states remained in this group, with no observable evolution. However, for this
year the states of Campeche and Morelos were added to this group (having
previously been in conglomerate 6 in 2006), the progress of which was mainly
due to the improvement in both factors.
·
Conglomerate 6: Average deficit in absorption and innovation capability
and average deficit in its infrastructure technological capability.
This group was comprised by 14 states in 2006 (Campeche*, Durango, Guanajuato,
Hidalgo, Michoacán, Morelos*, Nayarit, Querétaro*, SLP, Sinaloa, Tabasco,
Tlaxcala, Yucatán, and Zacatecas). In 2012, all those states remained in this
group, except for Campeche*, Morelos* and Querétaro*, which migrated to groups
in more advanced positions. Campeche and Morelos advanced to conglomerate 5,
whereas the state of Querétaro moved from conglomerate 6 to 2 due to a slight
improvement in factor 1 and a vast improvement with regard to factor 2.
·
Conglomerate 7: Low deficit in absorption and innovation capability
and elevated deficit in infrastructure technological
capability. This group was comprised by 5 states in 2006 (Veracruz, Puebla,
Guerrero, Oaxaca, Chiapas). In 2012, all those states remained in this group.
Furthermore, the states of Veracruz and Puebla could be observed at the limit
of the group, with tendencies of migrating to a more advanced group.
These groups can be more clearly observed
in Figure 3 , which
shows all the states ordered according to the two factors obtained.
Triangulation of the results obtained with other indicators
At the end of the XVIII century, the
geography hypothesis was a broadly accepted theory for the causes of global
inequality, which affirms that the large gap between rich and poor entities is
due to geographical differences. Presently, this argument of economic
development has been overcome, as in fact, there is no simple or long-lasting
cohesion between the climate or geography and economic success—geography does
not mark the destiny of any country—( Acemoglu &
Robinson, 2013 ). However, in the XXI century, mapping the geography
of innovation (and in this case, of the underlying technological capability)
takes relevance as to evidence the bias of the technology policy that
concentrates its efforts in a few entities or that incentivizes (in an inadequate
manner) the generation of technological and innovation capabilities, thus
generating greater regional-state imbalances. With the aforementioned, we show
the importance of the relationship between technological capability and
economic development. In this sense, the obsession to measure the technological
capability lies in that, theoretically, increasing it would lead to increase
the levels of innovation, which in turn is expected to impact the economic,
social, and environmental sphere of a region. Therefore, it is pertinent to
triangulate the results obtained relative to the state conglomerates of
technological capability with other indicators, such as: The Human Development
Index (HDI),5 Multidimensional Poverty,6 and the State
Competitiveness Index (SCI).7 These indicators demonstrate not only
the standard of living but also the quality of life of the inhabitants of the
different entities.
It is coincidental that the conglomerates
with greater technological capability show favorable or acceptable results in
terms of competitiveness, quality of life, and reduction of poverty, whereas
the conglomerates with a greater deficiency in technological capability
manifest clear socioeconomic issues. Even though this study does not prove the
causality of both variables (technological capability and economic
development), it reflects their relationship with each other favorably.
It is worth emphasizing the following
conjectures to contextualize the triangulation carried out: conglomerate 7 (the
weakest in technological capability) shows the lowest levels within the HDI,
which implies categorical inefficiencies in the access to health services,
education and a decent standard of living. Furthermore, it presents the highest
average multidimensional poverty level (66.14%), meaning that more than half of
the population of Veracruz, Puebla, Guerrero, Chiapas, and Oaxaca endure not
only a weakened technological capability, but also social deficiencies (of
education, health, social security, housing, basic services, and nutrition),
and an income lower than the well-being line,8 as well. Finally, this
conglomerate experiences the lowest state competitiveness (below the national
average). Conglomerates 6 to 1 show a gradual worst to best behavior in the
contrasted rubrics (see Table 7).
Source: Own elaboration based on PNUD (2015), CONEVAL (2015), and IMCO (2014).
Regarding the entities that showed
advances in terms of technological capability during the evaluated period
(Querétaro, Campeche, and Morelos), Querétaro stands out given that in the
period of study it not only advanced in terms of technological capability, but
also, according to PNUD (2015)
, it presented a relatively favorable9 mobility as it went from
a ‘high’ to a ‘very high’ human development, implying that the people of
Querétaro experience positive changes with regard to the rubrics of education,
health, and income. Being the only state that, during this same period, managed
said progress. In parallel, according to CONEVAL (2015) , it has managed to reduce
multidimensional poverty by 2.7% (from 2012 to 2014) and remains within the top
5 positions in terms of competitiveness ( IMCO, 2014 ). For its part, according to
estimates by PNUD (2015)
, Campeche shall be the first state to reach the HDI level of Mexico City (in
20 years)10 and in terms of competitiveness it moved forward 2
positions (now found in 13th place, above the national average), whereas in
terms of multidimensional poverty, it managed to reduce it by 1.1%. The state
of Morelos draws attention due to the alarming increase in its levels of
poverty, increasing by 6.8% (from 2012 to 2014). Furthermore, it moves down
from the 20th position to the 21st with regard to competitiveness (falling
below the national average). In this case, it would be worthwhile for future
studies to question the hypothesis in which, according to Tedesco (2010) , the societies that are more
intensively using the information and knowledge in their productive activities
are significantly increasing social inequality; where social polarization is
the result of an institutional system that does not take responsibility for the
future of the people.
Econometric validation test of the cluster analysis for the year 2006
In the same vein, an ANOVA test has been
carried out (see Table 8) to verify that the cluster
analysis carried out for the year 2006 is adequate and whether there are
significant differences between the obtained groups. The ANOVA and the post hoc
tests allow us to verify that the cluster
analysis carried out for the different variables is correct, in the sense of
being able to prove the existence of significant differences between the seven
groups in consideration. The results shown below confirm the merit of the
analysis.
Within the ANOVA test (year 2006), given
that P = 0.05 > Sig = 0.000 the H0 is
rejected, there is a statistically significant difference between the total of
the groups.
Once it has been determined that there are
differences between the medians, the post hoc range test allows determining
which medians differ. The post hoc range test identifies homogeneous subsets of
medians that do not differ between them. Therefore, to prove if there are
differences between all the groups, further tests have been carried out in
addition to the Student–Newman–Keuls, Tukey and
Waller–Duncan HSD tests. 11 11
HSD, honestly-significant-difference.
Source : Own elaboration (SPSS 21).
1.
The means of the groups of homogeneous
subsets are shown. Based on observed means. The error term is the quadratic
mean (Error) = .058. a. Uses the sample size of the
harmonic mean = 7.842. b. Alfa = .05. c. Reason for seriousness of the
error of type 1/type 2 = 100.
2.
The means of the groups of homogeneous
subsets are shown. Based on observed means. The error term is the quadratic
mean (Error) = .117. a. Uses the sample size of the
harmonic mean = 7.842. b. Alfa = .05. c. Reason for seriousness of the
error of type 1/type 2 = 100.
The Student–Newman–Keulsa,b
Test is a multiple comparison test that allows comparing the medians of the t
levels of a factor after having rejected the H0 of median equality through the
ANOVA technique. The Tukey a,b HSD test utilizes the studentized
range statistic to carry out all the comparisons by pairs between the groups
and establishes the error rate per experiment as the error rate for the set of
all the comparisons by pairs. The Waller–Duncan a,c test utilizes the Bayesian approximation.
This range test employs the harmonic median of the sample size when the sampled
sizes are not equal ( Martín, Cabero, & de
Paz, 2008 ).
The test has been
carried out with the 3 groups that have more than one state, thus eliminating
the case of Mexico City, Mexico, Jalisco, and Nuevo León which present clear
differences with the rest of the groups.
Table 9 presents the results of the post hoc
tests for factor 1, defined as the absorption and innovation capability; it can
be observed that:
- There
is a statistically significant difference between group 5 and group 7.
- There
is a statistically significant difference between group 6 and group 7.
- However,
there are no significant differences between group 5 and group 6, due to
Sig. > 0.05, in this case 0.5 > 0.05. In the dispersion diagram ( Fig. 3 ), a certain coincidence can be
observed.
Similarly, the results of the post hoc
tests for factor 2, defined as the infrastructure technological capabilities,
show that there is a statistically significant difference between all the
conglomerates.
Econometric
validation test of the cluster analysis for the year 2012
Similarly, the ANOVA test has been carried
out to verify that the cluster analysis done for the year 2012 is
adequate and if there are significant differences between the groups obtained.
This can be observed in Table 10.
The results of the ANOVA test reject the H
0 , therefore, there is a statistically
significant difference between the total groups, given that P = 0.05 > Sig = 0.000.
Furthermore, the post hoc tests have been
carried out with the 4 groups that have more than one state, thus eliminating
the case of Mexico City, Mexico and Jalisco, which present clear differences
with the rest of the groups.
Table 11 shows the results of the post hoc tests
for factor 1, defined as the absorption and innovation capability, where it can
be observed that:
HSD, honestly-significant-difference.
Source : Own elaboration (SPSS 21).
1.The means of the groups of homogeneous
subsets are shown. Based on observed means. The error term is the quadratic
mean (Error) = .085. a. Uses the sample size of the
harmonic mean = 4.536. b. The sizes of the groups are
different. The harmonic mean of the group sizes will be used. Type I error
levels are not guaranteed. c. Alfa = .05. d. Reason for seriousness of the
error of type 1/type 2 = 100.
2.The means of the groups of homogeneous
subsets are shown. Based on observed means. The error term is the quadratic
mean (Error) = .102. a. Uses the sample size of the
harmonic mean = 4.536. b. Alfa = .05. c. Reason for seriousness of the
error of type 1/type 2 = 100.
- There
is a statistically significant difference between group 5 and group 7.
- There
is a statistically significant difference between group 5 and group 2.
- There
is a statistically significant difference between group 6 and group 7.
- There
is a statistically significant difference between group 6 and group 2.
- However,
there we no significant differences between group 5 and group 6, due to
Sig. > 0.05, in this case 0.66 > 0.05. In the dispersion diagram ( Fig. 3 ), certain coincidence can be
observed. This is the same case between group 7 and group 2.
Furthermore, the results of the post hoc
tests for factor 2 are also visualized, defined as the infrastructure
technological capabilities, indicating that there is a statistically
significant difference between all the conglomerates, except for conglomerates
5 and 2, due to Sig. > 0.05, in this case 0.08 > 0.05.
Finally, it could be said that the post
hoc tests have shown significant differences in most of the cases between the
groups in consideration, and at the set level (as proven in the results of the
ANOVA and the dispersion graph) there are significant differences between the 7
conglomerates, therefore, the cluster analysis carried out for both periods is
acceptable.
Conclusions
This work shows the results of an
empirical research on the differences between the entities of the Mexican
republic with regard to their technological capability and their evolution in a
six-year period (2006–2012). The results show the existence of seven groups of
states, clearly characterized by different levels of technological capability.
The predominance of conglomerates 5, 6, and 7 can be observed in Figure
4 .
This lets us see that groups 1–4 manifest satisfactory results in some of the
factors analyzed (absorption and innovation capability and/or infrastructure
technological capability); however, said groups are the least numerous (5
entities). The need to decentralize the scientific and technological
capabilities is clear, to contribute to the promotion of economic development
and the well-being of all the regions in the country, taking into consideration
their productive vocation.
The classification of the entities into
seven different conglomerates and the analysis of their evolution through 6
years allows us to conclude that, in general, the gap in technological
capability and consequently in technological innovation between the states of
the Mexican Republic is broad, and is concentrated in a few entities (Federal
District, Nuevo León, Querétaro, Jalisco, State of Mexico). From 2006 to 2012,
only 3 entities (Querétaro, Morelos, and Campeche) managed to move to a more
advanced conglomerate. The situation of Querétaro stands out, given that in
2006 it was in conglomerate 6, and in 2012 it had moved to the second
conglomerate, accompanying Nuevo León only below Mexico City.
This speaks of the fact that, despite that
technological capability and thereby innovation is a gradual and accumulative
process, there is a possibility that in a period of 6 years the states can make
considerable progress in terms of their technological capability. The example
has been set by these three states, both with regard to their absorption and
innovation capability as well as their infrastructure technological capability.
On the other hand, some implications can be pointed out: the first refers to
the unequal distribution of the technological capability between the
conglomerates observed. The combination of the two factors of the technological
capability (absorption and innovation capability and infrastructure
technological capability) performs an important role when it comes to
positioning each state innovation system. Each state ought to not only observe
and try to imitate those that are in a more advanced position or conglomerate,
but should also draw their own itinerary departing from their existing
technological capability, trying to succeed in the improvement of their
position ( García et al., 2012).
The second implication refers to the
general evolution of the innovation systems. In this sense, it ought to be
analyzed how many states have improved and moved toward a superior conglomerate
and how many have regressed. As can be observed, no state has regressed to an
inferior group, rather some states have moved to a superior one. Specifically,
two states moved from conglomerate 6 to 5 (Morelos and Campeche), one state
moved from conglomerate 6 to 2 (Querétaro), and 29 states remained with
practically no change. In general, the variations in their positions during the
six years considered have not been too significant, which could be due to the
fact that technological capabilities are slowly generated and destroyed with
the course of time, even in periods of rapid economic growth ( Archibugi & Castellacci,
2008).
It is also worth mentioning that the
distances between conglomerate 6 and 5 have been reduced in terms of
infrastructure technological capability; the same occurs between conglomerate 5
and 2. However, in the positive quadrants in general, only 4 conglomerates (5
states) are found clearly positioned, which appears to coincide with the global
dynamic of worldwide technology, in which few entities generate most of the
knowledge ( Archibugi & Pianta, 1996 ). In the long term, the aforementioned
suggests that Mexico is evolving toward a region in which a small group of
states, around 16%, dominate the technological landscape, whereas the remaining
84% of the states would be further delayed.
Below we present the main conclusions in
greater detail, in terms of possible action areas for each of the groups
identified in the empirical analysis.
Regarding the states situated in
conglomerates 6 and 7, these are the ones found in the worst positions in terms
of technological capability (absorption and innovation) and, therefore, have
the need for clear action to drive innovation forward. In order to reduce their
technological difference, they could increase their investment in R&D as a
greater public and private investment capacity in R&D could help the
industry develop their research interests, which in conjunction with specific
initiatives intended to increase entrepreneurial culture and innovation in the
SMEs could also promote innovation ( García et al., 2012).
In conglomerate 7, Puebla and Veracruz
could increase their efforts, mainly in terms of infrastructure technological
capability. The states integrated in groups 6 and 7 need to make an additional
effort to improve the technological infrastructures, given that they have a
rather low absorption capability. Regarding group 5, it finds itself in a
positive position in terms of infrastructure technological capabilities,
however, their efforts ought to be guided toward increasing their absorption
and innovation capability. Conglomerates 3 and 4 maintain a competitive
position in terms of their absorption and innovation capability, nevertheless,
they manifest certain deficiencies in terms of their infrastructure
technological capability and thus should be reinforced first and foremost.
Conglomerate 2, comprised of Nuevo León and Querétaro, is the best positioned
in terms of infrastructure technological capability and regarding its absorption
and innovation capability it is within the positive quadrant. The companies of
the states that comprise it determine the technological competitiveness of the
region. These states must pay particular attention to developing strategies
that favor the creation and distribution of knowledge. To this end, they could
improve the quality of the research institutions, strengthen the collaboration
between universities and companies, and improve the laws related to information
and communication technologies, thus facilitating the interaction between all
the agents of the innovation system and providing collaboration with other
foreign actors that would help them create new knowledge (Clarysse
and Muldur, 2001) cited by ( García et al., 2012 ). In any case, there is still a long way
to go to converge with conglomerate 1 in terms of the analyzed components.
Finally, regarding conglomerate 1, this is
the most advanced in absorption and innovation capability, and is comprised of
only Mexico City. In this sense, the well positioned states must try to gain
new talent, thus facilitating the creation and distribution of first level
knowledge ( Archibugi & Coco, 2004 ). This group could represent a point of
reference for some less advanced groups with the purpose of identifying actions
guided toward improving innovation which could help advance to a superior
conglomerate.
The main contributions of this work are
the following:
From the point of view of the literature on
technological capabilities, these results contribute with new empirical
evidence on the existence of seven different groups of states in the Mexican
Republic in terms of their technological capability, indicating the dimensions
in which each group differs from the rest. Furthermore, it is clearly shown
that the differences between states are well reflected by the two factors, as
indicated by the results of the factor analysis and the cluster analysis. This
research and classification could help identify and understand the challenges
and opportunities that the states of each conglomerate face in the future.
Despite the contributions of this
empirical study, it is necessary to note its limitations. There is no doubt
that the literature on technological change needs to continue to progress in
order to find better measurement tools. In this sense, the indicators
contemplated in this work could be reinforced using triangulation methods, such
as the use of synthetic indexes, or combining them with other indicators
elaborated by different organizations or institutions, as is advisable by García-Ochoa Mayor, Blázquez
de la Hera, and López Sánchez (2012) . Furthermore, it is critical to prepare
stratified statistical data at a state level, due to the fact that the
perception is that the current situation of the statistics generation subsystem
on Science and Technology in Mexico is limited, and indicates areas of
opportunity for its improvement.
Table 12 shows the main advantages and limitations of the
study:
Finally, it is worth highlighting the need
to carry out in-depth studies of each state to be able to propose
differentiated technological policies, given that what this work intended was
to note possible action areas in each state, according to the positioning obtained
and the evolution observed in each of them. The identification of the weak
areas of each entity regarding technological capability suggests possible roads
or routes for their improvement, which must obviously be supplemented with
in-depth studies in each case.
Reflections
This work is an effort to impact on the
particular analysis of the CTI, but from a perspective that allows properly
identifying the technological capabilities at a state level, grouping together
the states that share similar conditions in said matter. The main objective is
to have a map that draws the distances and the road to follow, from one
conglomerate to another, in the interest of progress and competitiveness. And
the second objective for these types of studies is to be a source of reference
to incur in differentiated technological policies and in accordance with the
relative needs of each group of states. According to Dominguez
and Brown (2004) , it is necessary to draft a
technological policy in Mexico to support the accumulation of said
technological capabilities.
Therefore, it is quite pertinent to open
the discussion regarding the programs and instruments whose purpose incurs not
only in the increase of the technological capabilities of the states, but also
in the decrease of regional asymmetries and the promotion of the linkage
between marginal and developed areas (social and technologically).
Let us begin with the National Development
Plan (2013–2018), whose objectives are to integrate and overcome the regional
imbalances. From the aforementioned, the PECITI
(2014)
seeks to determine strategies for regional development, for which it has two
instruments that seek to promote development in the states and strengthen their
scientific and technological capabilities. Said instruments are the FOMIX
(Mixed Fund) and the FORDECyT ( Fondo Institucional de Fomento
Regional para el Desarrollo Científico,
Tecnológico y de Innovación
), the latter is a fund of relatively
‘recent creation’ given that it was built from the Expenditure Budget of the
Federation of 2009 in the interest of creating an instrument that would
address, from a broader perspective, the integration and collaboration between
states to contribute in overcoming the regional imbalances and asymmetries;
which are proven and stressed in this study.
Currently, FOMIX and FORDECyT
supplement each other to drive the decentralization policy and to promote
regional development based on knowledge ( FCCyT, 2012 ). However, from our perspective, FORDECyT needs better monitoring, as in its short 6 years
of existence there is still much to be learned and improved. Despite how it has
been indicated by the FCCyT (2012) , this fund reveals its high potential in
financed projects that address development problems, needs, and opportunities
to promote regions based on science, technology, and innovation. Said anchoring
has clearly been unstable, with notable ups and downs since its creation, given
that according to statistics of the CONACyT (2015) , the Regional Fund presented a 67%
decrease from 2009 to 2012. However, from 2012 to date, it manifests an
increase of 440%. Although the increase is overly plausible, these ups and
downs are without a doubt what alter the regional technological dynamic that
interrupts the accumulation and consolidation of the technological capabilities
necessary to innovate. It has gotten to the point that it is necessary to
endorse the fundamental belief that “ the cutbacks in science are short-sighted, because they are cutbacks on
future perspectives ” (Heuer, 2015).
Thus, speaking of regional funds, it is
necessary to consider the distribution and transparency of the FONREGION,12
whose purpose is to have less socially asymmetric states. This fund,
according to PNUD (2015) , shows that its projects
were not aligned with the regional needs (mainly in Guerrero, Oaxaca, and
Chiapas), nor with the objectives of the country to reduce poverty and
inequality; given that the resources were not directed to the regions or groups
that needed them most, and therefore, the transparency of the use of said
resources is questionable.
In parallel to these efforts, the INAES
(National Institute of Social Economy) has also recently participated in the
actions derived from the Innovative Development Program 2013–2018, which has
the great challenge of being able to converge social innovation and
technological innovation. The social economy and the economy of knowledge begin
to be interlinked and their monitoring and transparency become necessary to
corroborate the correct linking of the social needs with the existing and
potential technological capabilities. This as a means to ensure the state and
regional competitiveness; and, in this manner, according to Oppenheimer
(2014) ,
making it possible for technology to reach those most in need, thus connecting
science with the fight against poverty. In this manner, it is possible to
achieve the longed for change in which Mexican innovation
incentivizes the innovation that looks after the poor ( Muñoz,
2014).
According to FCCyT (2012, p. 17) , “progress has been made towards
decentralization, according to which the innovation processes must emerge
locally, in this case, from the states and regions, trying to promote what is
known as innovative territories, which are understood as spaces or regions that
take advantage of their conventional and non-conventional resources (the
existing capabilities and those that are yet to be developed)”.
In this sense, for Oppenheimer
(2014) ,
the places where innovation flourishes (innovative territories) generally
glorify talent more than money. Thus, it is worth remembering that the virtuous
circle of innovation consists in converting money (investment in CTI) into
knowledge and at separate time, turning knowledge into money (new, commercially
accepted goods). This inevitably requires differentiated technological policies
that incentivize the technological capabilities of the regions. In Mexico, one
of the biggest challenges is promoting region development without generating
greater regional imbalances, and achieving a culture of innovation accompanied
by strategies that persuade the concentration of creative-innovating minds to
the most disadvantaged states.
Therefore, saying that Mexico does not
grow is forgetting that in our country there are states that during certain
periods could very well be classified as Asian tigers , co-inhabiting with entities that suffer
economic crises of similar proportions to Greece and,
therefore, the problem is not that Mexico does not grow, but rather that it
grows at 32 different paces ( Ríos,
2014).
The results of this research suggest a
similar analogy, Mexico does make effective use of the technological knowledge
to change existing technologies and develop new products and processes, but
said capability progresses at 7 different paces (7 state conglomerates of
technological capability). Therefore, it is not coincidental that the states
with lower levels of technological capability manifest, on the one hand, a
lower competitiveness and social performance, accompanied by greater poverty
and social setback.
Therefore, in order to increase said
capabilities a benchmarking exercise is necessary, taking as point of reference
those states that are doing a good job in terms of promoting innovation by
granting the necessary conditions to execute it. Focusing on Mexico City, Nuevo
León, and Querétaro13 as success cases, may
perhaps be more beneficial than looking toward Switzerland, the United Kingdom
or Sweden, 14 given that the former are part of our context.
However, for the observance of the former, different research types and methodologies
are required to analyze the subject matter.
The findings of this investigation enhance
the debate and discussion regarding the technological innovation capabilities
in Mexico. Some of the results are convergent with previous studies, for example,
the top 3 states with greater innovation capabilities and infrastructure
technological capabilities coincide with the top 3 presented in the National
Ranking of Science, Technology, and Innovation ( FCCyT, 2014 ). However, given that the research
methodology and focus is different, it can be appreciated that the
stratification of these 7 conglomerates set the norm to reflect how, generally,
innovation tends to be stratified in three groups.15 Nevertheless, the
results of this investigation suggest the existence of 4 groups of states
(almost isolated) that show a clearly different and efficient dynamic in terms of
technological capability when compared to the rest of the republic.
The situation of Chiapas, Guerrero, and Oaxaca
is worrying. For their part, conglomerates 5 and 6 are also located in the
negative quadrants, the states that congregate in said groups are considered
states in transition in terms of CTI investment and economy of knowledge ( PECITI,
2014 ).
Finally, conglomerates 1 to 4 present better conditions with regard to their
technological capabilities, in this case, the consolidating states are only:
Mexico City, Nuevo León, Querétaro, and Jalisco. Derived from this, the
following questions emerge: why the technological capability seems to
concentrate in just a few states? In what measure does this depend on location?
How does each conglomerate relate with economic development? And how does the
creation and accumulation of state technological capabilities impact both in
the standard of living and quality of life of the Mexican people? Questions
that double as research suggestions and which could be answered under diverse
methodologies. Finally, good expectations are anticipated, given that according
to PECITI (2014) , it has been proposed that the GIDE/GDP
for 2018 shall be of 1%, a figure that would drive the capabilities of Science,
Technology, and Innovation. However, a pending task is to reverse the fact that
magical thinking is currently privileged over logical-scientific thinking,
since according to the Survey on Public Perception of Science and Technology in
Mexico ( Enpecyt, 2011 ), 57.5% of Mexicans consider that due to
their knowledge, “researchers and scientists have a power that makes them
dangerous”. For the incentives regarding Science and Technology to work, said
perception must change, and this should be reflected on the increase of our
human resources dedicated to research, science, and technology.
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Peer
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de México.
Notes.
1Other taxonomies of technological
capability are focused on developed entities ( Archibugi and Coco, 2004; Lall, 1992 ). Furthermore, Torres
(2006) notes that the starting
point of the analysis is that the Developing Countries are borrowers or learners ,
that is to say, that they borrow and learn technology developed by the
developed countries and thus ought to have different indicators.
2The survey is known as “soft data” and
generally is obtained from samples of the surveys (not of entire populations).
For the INEGI, the ESIDET-MBN 2012 is the first special survey in companies
with state geographical coverage and, therefore, the set for the year 2006 does
not employ said variable.
3For Chinaprayoon (2007) , internet users are an indicator of the
diffusion of new technologies, whereas electric energy consumption and
telephone lines are indicators of the diffusion of old technologies.
4It is expected that the growth of the
economic activity and income derive from an increase on the demand of more
complex or technologically advanced goods ( Cepal, 2007).
5Synthesizes the advance obtained in three
basic dimensions for the development of the people: the possibility of enjoying
a long and healthy life, education, and access to resources to enjoy a
dignified life ( PNUD, 2015).
6Percentage of the population in
multidimensional poverty, i.e., that has an income below the Well-being Line
and that suffers at least one social deficiency ( CONEVAL,
2015).
7
Measures the capability of the states to
attract and keep talent and investments. To measure this, the structural and
circumstantial capabilities of the entities are evaluated ( IMCO,
2014).
8The Well-Being line is the monetary value
of a food basket and a non-food basket for basic consumption.
9Mobility evaluation from year 2006 to 2012
( PNUD, 2015).
10Under the assumption of the invariability
of the growth trends.
11The Student–Newman–Keulsa,b
Test is a multiple comparison test that allows comparing the medians of the t
levels of a factor after having rejected the H0 of median equality through the
ANOVA technique. The Tukey a,b HSD test utilizes the studentized
range statistic to carry out all the comparisons by pairs between the groups
and establishes the error rate per experiment as the error rate for the set of
all the comparisons by pairs. The Waller–Duncan a,c test utilizes the Bayesian approximation.
This range test employs the harmonic median of the sample size when the sampled
sizes are not equal ( Martín, Cabero, & de
Paz, 2008 ).
12FONREGION seeks to drive human development
in the states with greater setbacks and, consequently, strengthening the social
mobility for egalitarian opportunities.
13
In our study, Mexico City came out as the
leading state in technological capabilities, whereas Nuevo Léon and Querétaro
belong to the second conglomerate.
14
Better Ranking countries according to ( WIPO,
2014).
15
Clusters A, B, C in the National Ranking
of Science, Technology, and Innovation ( FCCyT, 2014 ). States in construction, states in
transition, and states in consolidation according to PECITI, 2014–2018.
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de México, Facultad de Contaduría y Administración.
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