US Equity Market Volatility Index Components, Impact on the Industrial Production Index and Post Covid-19 Forecasting: Relevance to Mexico

Resumen

This research aims to analyze whether the 42 category-specific Equity Market Volatility (EMV) trackers explain the US industrial production index (IPI) including the impact of the Covid-19 crisis. IPI values are forecasted, considering three scenarios of economic recuperation after the end of the Covid-19 pandemic.   To achieve this purpose, first an Artificial Neural Network is employed to determine if the EMV categorical tracker elements explain Industrial Production. Once, the incidence of the EMV trackers on IPI is evidenced, an ARIMA model is used to forecast the Industrial Production Index from June 2021 to December 2022. Motivation for this research and its originality is the strong economic and financial links of the Mexican economy with the U.S. Economy. Current economic trends in Mexico, particularly its economic recovery partly linked to the U.S economic recovery.